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Alternative Premier League table after 30 games, based on expected goals

This season was always going to be dramatic and now in almost every area of the Premier League table there is a huge battle going on.

One of the biggest is for a spot in the top four with Tottenham losing to Southampton, Arsenal beating Manchester United, and Chelsea drawing with Wolves.

Arsenal halted Manchester United’s unbeaten Premier League run under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

Arsenal halted Manchester United’s unbeaten Premier League run under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

A vital win for Cardiff City sees their chances of surviving their first season back in the top-flight improve, while even Everton and Bournemouth, who are 11th and 12th respectively, might now be casting a glance over their shoulders as the climax to the campaign becomes tense.

Crystal Palace will be frustrated too, losing 2-1 to Brighton & Hove Albion despite having the best of the chances and will be left feeling they deserved a win.

Sadly in football deserving a win doesn’t always get you the three points, which is a damn shame.

But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’?


Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 24.27

19. Fulham – Real position = 19

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 27.12

18. Newcastle United – Real position = 14

Real points = 34  | Expected points = 29.74

Matt Ritchie missed a penalty but Newcastle won anyway in a five-goal thriller with Everton

Matt Ritchie missed a penalty but Newcastle won anyway in a five-goal thriller with Everton

17. Brighton & Hove Albion – Real position = 15

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 29.93

16. Cardiff City – Real position = 18

Real points = 28 | Expected points = 30.55

15. Burnley – Real position = 16

Real points = 30 | Expected points = 32.42

14. Southampton – Real position = 17

Real points = 30 | Expected points = 33.62

Southampton stunned Spurs at St Mary’s

Southampton stunned Spurs at St Mary’s

13. West Ham – Real position = 9

Real points = 39 | Expected points = 33.66

12. Everton – Real position = 10

Real points = 37 | Expected points = 37.16

11. Bournemouth – Real position = 12

Real points = 37 | Expected points = 38.95

LIVE on talkSPORT

There are 11 live commentaries remaining across the talkSPORT network this week. Find out what they are and when you can hear them, below…

  • Reading vs Leeds (Tuesday) – talkSPORT 2
  • Bayern Munich vs Liverpool (Wednesday) – talkSPORT
  • Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa (Wednesday) – talkSPORT 2
  • Dynamo Kyiv vs Chelsea (Thursday) – talkSPORT 2
  • Watford vs Crystal Palace (Saturday) – talkSPORT
  • Leeds vs Sheffield United (Saturday) – talkSPORT 2
  • West Ham vs Huddersfield (Saturday) – talkSPORT 2
  • Swansea vs Manchester City (Saturday) – talkSPORT
  • Wolves vs Manchester United (Saturday) – talkSPORT
  • Millwall vs Brighton (Sunday) – talkSPORT 2
  • Fulham vs Liverpool (Sunday) – talkSPORT

10. Watford – Real position = 8

Real points = 43 | Expected points = 40.04

9. Crystal Palace – Real position = 13

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 41.34

8. Leicester – Real position = 11

Real points = 38 | Expected points = 44.27

7. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7

Real points = 44 | Expected points = 47.68

Raul Jimenez put Wolves in front against Chelsea

Raul Jimenez put Wolves in front against Chelsea

6. Arsenal – Real position = 5

Real points = 60 | Expected points = 48.33

5. Tottenham – Real position = 3

Real points = 61 | Expected points = 49.50

Tottenham’s players were dejected after throwing away their lead against Southampton

Tottenham’s players were dejected after throwing away their lead against Southampton

4. Manchester United – Real position = 4

Real points = 58 | Expected points = 49.76

Manchester United defender Chris Smalling is consoled by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

Manchester United defender Chris Smalling is consoled by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

3. Chelsea – Real position = 6

Real points = 57 | Expected points = 53.71

Eden Hazard prevented a defeat for the Blues against Wolves

Eden Hazard prevented a defeat for the Blues against Wolves

2. Liverpool – Real position = 2

Real points = 73 | Expected points = 66.61

Sadio Mane celebrates putting his side 2-1 up with a clinical finish

Sadio Mane celebrates putting his side 2-1 up with a clinical finish

1. Manchester City – Real position = 1

Real points = 74 | Expected points = 71.82

Raheem Sterling was the star of the show at the Etihad Stadium as Man City beat Watford

Raheem Sterling was the star of the show at the Etihad Stadium as Man City beat Watford



ViaTalksport

Author Since: Sep 20, 2018